I havenapos;t made many posts on this subject, but I wanted to today because I have seen some evidence for one of my theories. I know a few of my friends here are given to despair about Obamaapos;s chances in the election, despite his widening lead. You fear the polls are wrong, for one thing.
I too think the polls are wrong, but in the other direction. Most polls are overestimating Republican turnout by weighting them more heavily in the sampling than is warranted by registration. The other mistake the polls are making is the question theyapos;re asking.
Most polls currently ask Obama or McCain. Obama has a solid lead in a two way race, but it isnapos;t a two way race. There are Third Party Candidates this year, like every year. As Teddy Roosevelt, Ross Perot and Ralph Nader will tell you, they can have a profound effect on an election even if they donapos;t capture a sizeable proportion of the vote. A poll from Colorado today illustrates my point.
When asked Obama or McCain, the poll results are
Obama - 51
McCain - 47
Undecided - 2
Nice. Obama clearly in the lead.
When asked who, including third party candidates, the results are
Obama 50
McCain 43
Barr - 3
Nader - 3
McKinney - 1
McCain drops 4 points while Obama only 1. If this pattern were to hold nationwide, Obama is in landslide territory, possibly even over the 383 Iapos;m currently expecting for him.
It seems that when third party voters are asked the 2 person question liberals are saying "undecided" while conservatives are saying "McCain".
If Barr were to get more exposure nationally, or even in the battleground states, Iapos;m betting his numbers would go much higher. Nader is polling around where he did last time, so I wouldnapos;t expect a similar bounce for him even if he were to receive more attention.
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